NOAA just came out with their long range forecast for our area this winter and it looks fairly dry till February. Accuweather also came with theirs which I produced below… doesn’t look so hot either. After exhaustive research on my part El Nino nor La Nino seem to have any correlation to our area to either more or less snow so you might as well throw that one out as well.
Accuweather not looking muy bueno
However, the fact is, almost all the long range forecasts, despite all the money we throw at them, are basically, somebody’s educated guess, and unfortunately, are about as accurate as trying to pee out a plane window and land your pee stream on your worst neighbors scrambled eggs… another words… despite all the best intentions, it just ain’t gonna happen. Chances are it will be better than last year and the year before that… but it MAY not. Nobody knows, and if they tell you they do, there full of crap. On the upside, we have primeval believe in our house that the number of Aspen leaves you catch equals powder days… last year I was at 11 which was about right… this year I am sitting on 133 and we still have leaves left, so my Aspen religion tells me that its going to be a great season. And you know why it will be true… by God, because no matter how much it snows, I personally, will have an excellent season, no matter what we do or don’t have falling out of the sky. And while we are at it. Here is the word on our current drought conditions from our local NOAA office…
How Much Precipitation Would We Need to End the Drought?
The widespread rain and high elevation snow the last weekend of September was a welcome relief from the dry as of late, but barely registered a blip in the grand scheme of things. We are around a year behind average in precipitation accumula-tion at many sites around northeast California and northwest Nevada. We would need a winter with greater than 2 times average to even reach normal! This is more than we saw during our huge winter of 2010-2011 (moderate to strong La Niña) or for those who remember the winter of 1982-1983 (strong El Niño) . With this in mind, we are likely going to need several years of well above average precipitation to truly end the drought.
So there you have it… we be hurtin water wise but its unlikely according to averages for us to continue to have dry years stacked on top of consecutive dry years… but it COULD happen cause Ma Nature can do what she wants…
Only one thing is for sure… it will snow, so wax ‘em up boys and girls cause winter is coming to a mountain near you!