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Weather News…

Unlike last year, El Nino continues to intensify leading some forecasters to make parallels with the 97/98 season, which was a big one for us. What Daniel Swain is saying however is that we have never experienced an El Nino with the Eastern Pacific ocean temps this anomalously hot from Alaska to Peru. The effects of such warm temps in conjunction with what appears to be a potentially strong El Nino puts us in new territory. Swain, a Stanford Ph.D. candidate and weather guru and chief correspondent for weatherwest.com is calling for us to hold on to our hats if El Nino continues to warm and Eastern Pacific temps hold or continue to push into record breaking territory. We could be in for a wild winter for a change!

la-me-el-nino-noaa-image-20150721This photo compares sea temps from 1997 to our present El Nino situation. As you can see we are close and building. However, perhaps more interesting is the NW Pacific Sea temps off our coast which are up to 10 degrees above average in places and breaking records. Since we have never experienced an El Nino year when our local sea temps were this warm… there is no way to predict the outcome. Warm water typically means energy, and energy, from a meteorological standpoint, normally means storms. However, the temps of these storms and where they may be headed… are all up in the air. Typically in less robust El Nino years it’s So Cal that gets most of the action leaving us high and dry. In big El Nino years like 82/83 and 97/98 even Tahoe received a pretty generous fraction of the action.

la-me-ln-el-nino-forecast-20150721-002

As one can easily see, we are working toward a significant event if we continue to intensify sea temps in the South Eastern Pacific. Although a homage to Ullr or any other God of your choice or El Nino herself might be helpful… probably a shot of your favorite beverage with a slow motion dream of your last bottomless pow run with your eyes closed will due just as well (my plan). At least that way we can again enjoy what has already happened plus it’s a great excuse for a drink!

Sven

 

Talk about things heating up…

A friend of the site is reporting the ocean temps in Monterrey Bay are now the warmest ever reported since NOAA begin taking temps many years ago… in JP’s words…

“Went swimming in Monterey, no wetsuit needed. I’ve been swimming in Monterey Bay since 1987 yearly, this is the warmest in any memorable history.” Read the below this is crazy, a story in itself.

“The cool water is what people are used to in the Monterey Bay but Wednesday, a record temperature was set. The buoy in the Monterey Bay hit 67.5 degrees Wednesday afternoon. That is the warmest since the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration began taking those buoy records in 1987.Jul 23, 2014″

Lots of heat in the oceans equals energy, and energy typically equal storms… with the warmth however, these storms may be warmer than want… we will just have to wait and see at this point.

On another and much more interesting note… another good friend of mine had a dream last night that he and I were standing on a very steep slope about 35 feet from one another and he looked over at me through falling windless snow so thick he could barely see me and we both just smiled in anticipation looking down the long long slope before us… this may bode well for all of us.

And even if it doesn’t, we can dream can’t we?

Sven

Dream Deeply if you are going to Dream at all!

Dream Deeply if you are going to Dream at all!

 

Rose Summer Video Up on You Tube…

Rose put together a tribute to their summer happenings which was tastefully done and worth sharing for those of you not on their mailing list. You can check it out at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4zzlru97G0&feature=youtu.be

-Sven

El Nino Rides Again!

You might have already been hearing about weather changes on the horizon for the next six months. El Nino (unlike last year’s cluster) keeps on building in intensity and some models are predicting an event that rivals even the ’82/’83 season (which equaled epic deep snow for the Sierra’s). All indications are that there will be a very strong El Nino through at least February. Whether that translates to more storms than last year is open to debate, but it does give us a better chance. The “X” factor here is the anomalously hot water in the Eastern Pacific running from the Alaskan Coast to Peru. This record breaking warm water in this part of the Pacific is taking all bets off the table in relation to how the El Nino is responding in dynamical modeling (and a few months down the road, in reality).

Weather West (one of my favorite weather geek sites) is predicting that the Rediculously Resilent Ridge (RRR), which foiled so many powder days last season will not be as well supported nest season with major changes taking place in the ocean currents and temperature as I write this.

Record breaking heat and energy in the Eastern Pacific. This phenomenon in relation to a big El Nino year may lead to unforeseen (and unpredictable) consequences as forecasters find themselves in uncharted waters at this point.

Record breaking heat and energy in the Eastern Pacific. This phenomenon in relation to a big El Nino year may lead to unforeseen (and unpredictable) consequences as forecasters find themselves in uncharted waters at this point.

Needless to say, no one knows what may happen, however, I am just happy that some changes from last season are in the works… it is difficult to imagine how the season could have been much worse than last year… and I hope I never find out. Go check out: www.weatherwest.com for more info.

For now, hope you are enjoying paddling, swimming and hiking into mountain lakes and the millions of wild flowers making their presence known!

Happy Trails,

Sven