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Game On!

Our friends at Tahoe Weather Blog have just released a graphic showing we are on tap to have one of the largest El Nino’s on record this year. Some are saying the blob of warm East Pacific ocean temps off our coast may even intensify the El Nino effect. If this be true we will certainly have to batten down the hatches. All indications are on track for a winter to remember (so far so good).

Sven

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Are we in “hot water”?

If you hadn’t noticed… this summer so far has included some pretty unusual weather, lots of lightning, cloud cover, tropical storms, remnants of hurricanes, the most Flood Watches we have ever seen in the Sierra and three days of the hardest rain SoCal has ever seen in July. In one three day period in July San Diego received more rain than in all the hundred July’s preceding it all put together. So, yes, we can unequivocally say that this summer has presented some really strange weather for us Westerners used to a 3 to 5 month summer drought.

The culprits are most notably extreme record setting ocean temps in the Eastern Pacific off the coasts of the US and Mexico. As Heat equals Energy, meteorologically speaking, this record setting heat has helped Low Pressure systems move North after forming near Mexico or in SoCal bringing us more cloud cover, rain and lightning than normal.

Record setting ocean temps off the entire West Coast of North America are leading to some unusual summer weather

Record setting ocean temps off the entire West Coast of North America are leading to some unusual summer weather

As these ocean temps seem to continue to build into record highs meteorologists like Daniel Swain from Stanford believe these conditions will continue to siphon up tropical monsoonal moisture into our area for the remainder of the summer and early fall. Dry NW and wet South is typical of large El Nino years as well and as lawns die in Portland due to lack of rain and no sprinkler systems I believe we are probably already seeing the effects of El Nino this summer.

As El Nino continues to strengthen the odds of a wetter than normal winter grow daily.

As El Nino continues to strengthen the odds of a wetter than normal winter grow daily.

The one caveat to all this… how the incredibly warm temps off our coast will interact with El Nino. At this point, since we are in tabula rasa, no one can really say. As David Swain said so eloquently a few weeks ago… we might be in for a very wild ride this winter!

To check out Daniel’s latest post go to: http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3323

-Sven

Weather News…

Unlike last year, El Nino continues to intensify leading some forecasters to make parallels with the 97/98 season, which was a big one for us. What Daniel Swain is saying however is that we have never experienced an El Nino with the Eastern Pacific ocean temps this anomalously hot from Alaska to Peru. The effects of such warm temps in conjunction with what appears to be a potentially strong El Nino puts us in new territory. Swain, a Stanford Ph.D. candidate and weather guru and chief correspondent for weatherwest.com is calling for us to hold on to our hats if El Nino continues to warm and Eastern Pacific temps hold or continue to push into record breaking territory. We could be in for a wild winter for a change!

la-me-el-nino-noaa-image-20150721This photo compares sea temps from 1997 to our present El Nino situation. As you can see we are close and building. However, perhaps more interesting is the NW Pacific Sea temps off our coast which are up to 10 degrees above average in places and breaking records. Since we have never experienced an El Nino year when our local sea temps were this warm… there is no way to predict the outcome. Warm water typically means energy, and energy, from a meteorological standpoint, normally means storms. However, the temps of these storms and where they may be headed… are all up in the air. Typically in less robust El Nino years it’s So Cal that gets most of the action leaving us high and dry. In big El Nino years like 82/83 and 97/98 even Tahoe received a pretty generous fraction of the action.

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As one can easily see, we are working toward a significant event if we continue to intensify sea temps in the South Eastern Pacific. Although a homage to Ullr or any other God of your choice or El Nino herself might be helpful… probably a shot of your favorite beverage with a slow motion dream of your last bottomless pow run with your eyes closed will due just as well (my plan). At least that way we can again enjoy what has already happened plus it’s a great excuse for a drink!

Sven

 

Talk about things heating up…

A friend of the site is reporting the ocean temps in Monterrey Bay are now the warmest ever reported since NOAA begin taking temps many years ago… in JP’s words…

“Went swimming in Monterey, no wetsuit needed. I’ve been swimming in Monterey Bay since 1987 yearly, this is the warmest in any memorable history.” Read the below this is crazy, a story in itself.

“The cool water is what people are used to in the Monterey Bay but Wednesday, a record temperature was set. The buoy in the Monterey Bay hit 67.5 degrees Wednesday afternoon. That is the warmest since the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration began taking those buoy records in 1987.Jul 23, 2014″

Lots of heat in the oceans equals energy, and energy typically equal storms… with the warmth however, these storms may be warmer than want… we will just have to wait and see at this point.

On another and much more interesting note… another good friend of mine had a dream last night that he and I were standing on a very steep slope about 35 feet from one another and he looked over at me through falling windless snow so thick he could barely see me and we both just smiled in anticipation looking down the long long slope before us… this may bode well for all of us.

And even if it doesn’t, we can dream can’t we?

Sven

Dream Deeply if you are going to Dream at all!

Dream Deeply if you are going to Dream at all!